Egypt’s popuflation problem
By Khaled Diab
Spiralling
inflation has refocused attention in Egypt on overpopulation. But is birth
control enough without other reforms?
July 2008
Like in many other parts of the world, rocketing
inflation is a topic on just about every Egyptian’s lips. According to
government statistics, food and beverage prices rose by a staggering 27% in the
year to May 2008. In the same period, transportation went up 20.1%, education,
37.7%, and healthcare 12.1%. Only housing and utilities registered a relatively
modest increase of 7.6%, and clothes 4.1%.
In a country where millions of households
already led a hand-to-mouth existence, Egyptians are struggling to cope with
the massive price shocks, sparking fears that the famous adage that “no one
goes to sleep hungry in Egypt” may not apply for much longer.
In addition to the rioting outside bakeries for
subsidised bread that has caught international media attention, Egyptians have also
employed their legendary satirical skills to grin their way through yet another
crisis. In an al-Akhbar al-Youm
newspaper cartoon,
for instance, two dejected looking pedestrians try to aid an unconscious man,
while a passer-by suggests: “Don’t bother with an ambulance, lads, just let him
smell a piece of meat to resucitate him.”
In another,
a boxing referee is counselling the spindley figure
of the prime minister, Ahmed Nazif,
not to get into the ring with the heavyweight champion “Prices”.
Soaring prices have also refocused attention on
another issue that has never been far from the surface. Massive population
growth and inflation (popuflation, if you like) have
chipped away, and will continue to corrode, the benefits delivered by Egypt’s
booming economic growth, which currently hovers around 7%
per year in real terms.
“Demographic growth is a major challenge for
our generation, and all those to come,” President Hosni
Mubarak cautioned
at the opening of the National Population Conference last week. “[It is] a
serious obstacle to our development efforts and our efforts at raising
standards of living.”
And Egypt’s rapidly changing demographic
reality is startling to observe. When Napoleon invaded Egypt in 1798, its
population was estimated to be around 3 million. The 1947 census recorded slightly
fewer Egyptians (19 million) than there are Cairiens
today. In the quarter of a century he has ruled Egypt, Mubarak
has seen the population double to 80 million, which means that half of all
Egyptians know no other leader. He has truly become the ‘Father of the
Egyptians’.
The population explosion has been reflected in
Egypt’s growing inability to feed itself. A country that was once the
breadbasket of successive empires has been reduced to the status of a net
importer of food, which could be dangerous if global food supplies diminish
further.
Population growth has also had a radical effect
on the country’s topography. Cairo used to be one of the world’s greenest cities.
Today, flying over the megapolis by night is like
floating above a crowded concrete galaxy that stretches out beneath you as far
as the eye can see. At street level, the country’s heaving capital is an
endless sprawl of highrise developments where, even
in the wealthiest neighbourhoods, there is a marked absence of green spaces.
This overcrowding is hardly surprising when one
considers that, although Egypt is about a million square kilometres in size,
the inhabited slither of green land is about the size of tiny Switzerland – and
it is constantly being corroded by desertification and the cancer of urban growth.
And wiggle room could get tighter if global warming causes the climate in Egypt
to get even drier, or rising sea levels eat away
at the Nile Delta.
With potential catastrophe looming on the
horizon (the population could more than double, to reach 160 million, by 2050),
the government has launched a major information campaign aimed at encouraging
Egyptians to have fewer children. Under the heroic slogan “An Egyptian stand”,
billboards call on Egyptians to “use their minds” so that everyone can eat,
drink and get an education. “Before we add another newborn, we must be sure
that we can provide for it,” the posters advise.
Despite its expressed good intentions, many
have raised questions about how effective this campaign will be, especially
given that the government has been running a birth control initiative for
decades, which has succeeded in slowing down population growth, but hardly at
the required rate.
“I am not optimistic about this campaign,” Khairi Ramadan writes in al-Masry
al-Youm, “because we never seem to learn from our
previous experiences.”
One problem is targeting. “How on Earth is this
campaign going to succeed, if it is unlikely to reach the people who need it most:
the poor and illiterate who can’t even read the posters, let alone respond to
them?” my brother, Osama, wondered. While families in well-to-do urban
communities have generally shrunk significantly in recent decades, women in
rural areas have on average five children.
Another are the
entrenched attitudes which the government has not challenged effectively. “The
Arab world, and especially Egypt, suffers from destructive
concepts and behaviour,” writes Farida el-Shoubashi, also in al-Masry al-Youm. She goes further and accuses the government of
allowing itself to be browbeating into silence by religious conservatives whom
it fears.
Many Egyptians believe that having children is
a religious duty and that offspring are good security in their old age. “I’m glad
I only had one child, but some people I know have so many children they don’t
even remember all their names,” Am Hussein, a janitor, told me. “Instead of
being a help, these children are a burden.”
Parenthood also brings its own pride. “For some
people, having children is a status symbol; it is almost like a competition.
One woman I know who can barely make ends meet and is in poor health decided to
have another child because her sister-in-law got pregnant,” my mother said in
disbelief.
Then, there is the question of whether birth
rates can fall significantly until the poorest segments of society get their
share of the fruits of economic growth and until education levels improve in a
country where illiteracy still hovers at around 40%?
Moreover, there is the issue of trust. Although
birth control is crucial to Egypt’s future, many Egyptians will be sceptical
about the government’s intentions, given the increasingly poor distribution of
wealth in the country. “People are disillusioned with government promises. They
believe the government wishes to make them bear full responsibility for the
hard lives they lead,” Ramadan maintains. “They no longer believe any promises,
no matter how much the media or civil society get involved.”
Popuflation is a major challenge for Egypt, but
birth control alone will not save the day. The country also needs to raise
education and living standards for the masses, empower poorer women, and make
the most of its capable pool of human resources, much of which is currently
left to simmer in frustration and idleness.
This column appeared in The Guardian Unlimited’s Comment is Free section on 19
June 2008. Read the related
discussion.
ã2008 K. Diab. Unless otherwise stated, all the content on this website is the
copyright of Khaled Diab.